Thirty-two actions being taken to accelerate the transformation of the energy system and wider economy were outlined yesterday by Energy and Climate Change Secretary Chris Huhne in the first Annual Energy Statement to Parliament. He revealed how the UK’s energy and climate change policy was being recalibrated for the long term, supported by comprehensive analysis of plausible pathways to a secure, low-carbon energy system in 2050.
The Government also published six illustrative ‘pathways’ showing that meeting the target of an 80 per cent cut in emissions by 2050 is ambitious but achievable, and compatible with maintaining security of energy supplies — while a do-nothing ‘reference’ scenario highlights the risks of a high carbon future.
In addition, an online ‘2050 Calculator’ went live today, enabling the public to explore the trade-offs inherent in designing the future secure, low-carbon energy system and wider economy.
“Our future energy system is too important to rely on crystal ball gazing," said Huhne. "The 2050 Calculator provides the most comprehensive, long-term analysis ever undertaken by Government. The decision to publish this material is a watershed in Government’s honesty with the public about what’s needed in the long term. It will guide the decisions we make during this Parliament about the energy system we want in 40 years’ time.
“This challenge is ambitious but achievable. We’re already on track to cut the UK’s emissions by 34 per cent by 2020, and will do more if we can win the case for greater ambition across the whole EU. But our line of sight needs to extend much further, through to the middle of the century."
The ‘2050 Pathways Analysis’ is the Government’s first comprehensive, long-term look at the UK’s energy supply and demand sectors and greenhouse gas emissions to 2050. It shows some of the energy choices and trade-offs which will have to be made over the next 40 years to ensure that the UK can secure low-carbon energy supplies for the future. The analysis includes six pathways as illustrative examples of the possible pathways to 2050 — plus one other pathway that shows what the world would look like if the country chose a path reliant on heavy fossil fuel usage.
Pathways differ — but with some common conclusions
These do not represent policy decisions and none of these is a preferred route, says the DECC. And the pathways differ — but there are common conclusions:
1. Ambitious per capita energy demand reduction is needed. The greater are the constraints on low-carbon energy supply, the greater the reduction in demand will need to be.
2. A substantial level of electrification of heating, transport and industry is needed.
3. Electricity supply may need to double, and will need to be decarbonised.
4. A growing level of variable renewable generation increases the challenge of balancing the electricity grid.
5. Sustainable bioenergy is a vital part of the low-carbon energy system, in sectors where electrification is unlikely to be practical, such as in long-haul freight transport and aviation and some industrial high-grade heating processes.
6. There remains an ongoing need for fossil fuels in our energy mix, although their precise long-term role will depend on a range of issues such as the development of carbon capture and storage.
7. Emissions from agriculture, waste, industrial processes and international transport make up a small proportion of emissions today, but by 2050, if no action were taken, emissions from these sectors alone would exceed the maximum level of emissions for the whole economy.
DECC says: "Government has worked with academics and members of the different industries to develop the figures and look at the potential for each sector. The publication of this work will enable a public debate about how the UK achieves its goals and ensure that all efforts add up to what is required."
In its Call for Evidence — which closes on October 5th — the DECC says it welcomes feedback on the assumptions, analysis and data used in this documentation.
Meanwhile, you can access the online calculator at 2050-calculator-tool.decc.gov.uk
